Germany Elections 2025 - CDU AfD an impossible coalition
Updated: Apr 27, 2025
#EuropeanPolitics Express - Germany #Bundestagwahl (for non-German A few months ago, a geopolitical expert asked me if a coalition between the CDU (right) and AfD (far-right) in Germany was possible, as it happens in the Netherlands. As the questions is still open on non-German media here is the response I gave: The two situations are completely different and that a CDU-AfD coalition would be out of the question for historical, ideological, and agenda-related reasons.
In the Netherlands, there was no official "cordon sanitaire" to prevent G. Wilders' VVD party from accessing power. Indeed, several parties allied to prevent a coalition. Ultimately, since the VVD won the election with the largest number of votes and seats in the Tweede Kamer, it became more difficult for much smaller groups to bypass the largest one. To reach a coalition, after months of negotiations, the VVD was ultimately obliged to compromise on several key points of its agenda, raising democratic concerns. Moreover, the Prime Minister is a technical figure who does not come from this party. Historically, the Dutch did not have a totalitarian regime (Nazi or fascist), which also makes this situation different. The VVD agenda is driven by current political issues anti-migration and antiIslam but most of the agenda is inspired from traditional liberal policies. While it is Eurosceptic and has mixed views on Putin, it does not claim to want to leave the EU and NATO.
In contrast, the AfD in Germany is of a different nature. A typical far-right party with totalitarian and anti-democratic tendencies. Some of its members have expressed nostalgia for the Third Reich and have been apologists for it. The party wants to leave the EU and is openly pro-Putin and pro-China. This puts them in complete opposition to the values of the CDU/CSU, which are centered on liberal democracy, a pro-EU stance, NATO support, and free markets. As F. Merz stated, "our two parties cannot be more opposed than any others."
In this regard, F. Merz would prefer to work with the Greens or any other party within the centrist bloc. The CDU will uphold the "hashtag#Brandmauer" (firewall) to exclude the AfD. This was evident in the regional elections last September in Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, where the CDU formed a coalition with the SPD and the Greens to prevent the AfD from governing these regions. AfD is expected to arrive as the 2nd political force 8-10 pts below the CDU, leaving the latter to form other coalition.
In the meantime, the AfD supported and voted for a bill to toughen policies against migration, led by the CDU. However, the CDU did not negotiate with them. While the AfD would like to collaborate with the CDU, the CDU remains firmly opposed to any cooperation with Alice Weidel's party. F. Merz adamantly reiterated this stance on Thursday on ZDF.
German Election 2025 outcome
The CDU arrived on top of polls with 28%, but it is far enough from governing on its own and has to build a coalition. F. Merz the CDU leader expressed its preference for a one-partner coalition to agree on an agenda and form a government very quickly.
A Groko coalition with SPD 16% of vote (3rd largest party) would enable an absolute majority.
If BSW (anti-migration far left, a spin-oof of Die Linke) or / and FDP (liberal) reach 5%, the threshold to get seats in the Bundestag, their entering in the Parliament will force CDU to find a 2nd partner to form a coalition. In this case, negotiations will last longer as it will be more difficult to agree on political agenda and options may be between Kenya (CDU, SPD, Green) or Jamaika (CDU, Green, FDP) coalitions.
Main leaders all wish to find agreement very quickly amid international urgency, triggered by the Trump administration to get closer to Russia and solve the Ukraine case at the expense of Ukrainians and Europeans. F. Merz indicated a deadline of 8 weeks (Easter) and O. Scholz outbid with the sooner the better, without setting any deadline. This signals the willingness of SPD to welcome discution with CDU to agree rapidly on a solution.
FDP, the traditional coalition partner, may have written off itself from a future coalition, as its rigidity to fiscal orthodoxy led to break the last government, triggering the current election. They now appear as an unreliable partner and at adds with the new paradigm the need for Germany for fiscal deficit to finance infrastructure program and increase its defence capacity. The resignation of C. Lindner could unlock FDP stance and facilitate discussion for portnership in a coalition.
AfD, the 2nd largest party around 20%, and swiftest increase +10pts, is trying to present itself as a partner to either form a government with the Christan -Democrats or the "Swedish format" support them in the Parliament without any government participation, Sweden. F. Merz CDU and M Soder CSU rejected upfront any collaboration with a party that receives its order directly form Putin. To this A. Weidel, AfD leader, threatened the failure of an Ampel + CDU coalition as she may win the next election. In this case the Brandmauer would still resist and all other parties will form a coalition to keep AfD out of taking power.
